Experts argue that President Trump misunderstands the origins of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, attributing it incorrectly to Ukraine's NATO aspirations, despite the alliance's long-standing reluctance to admit the country. Analysts say this flawed view, coupled with what many see as Trump’s favorable stance toward Vladimir Putin, has led to peace proposals that could embolden Russia and risk another invasion of Ukraine.

“Trump’s contention that Ukraine’s hope of joining NATO ‘caused the war to start’ is a claim that is often made, but one that doesn’t stand up to scrutiny,” Brian Taylor, director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs, tells Forbes. “Given that there was no serious prospect of Ukraine joining NATO between 2008 and 2022, it’s hard to see how Ukraine’s hope of joining NATO at some point in the future caused the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022. Nothing had happened in the previous 14 years to make it likely that Ukraine could join NATO anytime soon.”

“I think most specialists on Russia and Ukraine agree that Putin’s key motive for the full-scale invasion was his desire to restore Russian political control over Ukraine—it wasn’t about this or that piece of territory,” says Taylor. “This reflects Putin’s oft-stated belief that Ukraine is not a separate nation and that it is an artificial state.”